What is EV and how can you use it to your advantage? EV is an analytical tool, a way of looking at poker, which ideally will standardize your good decisions and help you identify and correct mistakes. Simply put: it’s smart bankroll management – if you think of everything in terms of EV, you are going a long way towards playing mathematically sound poker.
The Science of EV
EV refers to expected value, and it means how much you can expect to win over your lifetime with each play you make. For example, a play that has +$3 of EV means that if you make that play every time, you can expect to win $3 per play over your poker career. This doesn’t mean you’ll win $3 every time you make it, in fact, you will probably never win exactly $3. It is just a long-term calculation. Similarly, a -$3 EV play means that you will lose an average of $3 every time you make this play over your poker career.
Using EV in Practice
Often, it is enough to simply know that a play is +EV or –EV. If you make more +EV plays than –EV plays over the course of your career, provided that the value amounts of the plays are relatively uniform, you will be a winning player. Of course, if you make one -$100 EV play for every 10 +$5 EV plays you make, you will be a losing player, and have a drastic leak in your game that you need to correct.
Calculating EV
Calculating EV is often a matter of understanding your equity in a pot vs. the amount you invest to win that pot. Your percentage chance to win a pot represents how much the pot is worth to you, so if you are investing less than the pots are worth to you, you are making +EV plays. Sometimes you will have to make a rough estimate of EV. If you determine a play is +EV it is safe to make it, no matter how positive it is. Conversely, a –EV play should never be made, unless you have calculated out that it will lead directly to more +EV plays later in the session, in which case it is not really a –EV play at all.
